One vote went the way I wanted it to yesterday – the same-sex marriage vote in the Scottish Episcopal Church. I hadn’t expected it, but I certainly hadn’t expected what happened in the second vote, ie the General Election. The people have spoken, but what they have said is a confusing matter.
What happened in Scotland will cause an end to the calls for another Indyref any time soon. When John Swinney tells the media that worries over the Indyref was the reason for their losses, then that tells you a little something of the policy the SNP are going to start adopting. Which will be for an incremental increase in the powers of the Scottish Parliament, with, I suspect another Independence referendum in the long distance. I suspect that will happen within the next twenty years, and I expect it will be won, but it will be evolution not revolution.
On the face of it, Theresa May is going to try and rely on the DUP’s ten seats to form a minority government. But what I think isn’t being said in the media, is that she has another party that she has to go into an uneasy coalition with – the Scottish Conservatives.
The Scottish Tories are a very different breed from down south. They are more Ken Clarke than George Osbourne, and the success of Ruth Davidson has been in spite of her brethren in Westminster, rather than because of it. Those Scottish Tory MPs will be all too well aware that their constituencies were hard Remain, and that how they behave will govern what happens in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2020. Add to that the “English votes for English Legislation” principle, which would imply that over much of the legislation for the UK, neither the Scottish Tories or the DUP would vote, means that the English Tories would not have a majority for much of their agenda.
So when it comes to a hard Brexit, there is little chance of May taking all the Scottish Tories with her in a hard Brexit. And she only needs one or two to dissent and she’s lost.
All in all, yesterday was a good day for me. Hope you’re having a good one too.